People Spots
Online
Produced by James W.
Moss, Sr., and Church Consultants
Provided as a service by New Life Ministries
Normal Attrition
by James W. Moss, Sr.
Years ago I heard a tale. A man had been tending his hogs. He became ill and fell to the ground. The animals saw a quick meal and began gnawing away at their caregiver. Help did not arrive in time. If the illness had not killed the farmer, the hogs did. The animals consumed enough the funeral was closed casket.
There is a voracious animal that eats churches. It is relentless. It just keeps eating away. I call it normal attrition. These are the losses that just happen in a church apart from conflict. The losses that come from conflict are another issue. I’m talking about the normal attrition that just happens in churches that the church has little control over.
The normal church will lose between 10-15% of its annual average attendance every single year. For instance, a church that averages 50 people will lose between 5-8 people annually. A church that averages 100 will lose between 10-15 people annually. A church that averages 200 will lose between 20-30 people annually. The emphasis is on the word annually. It is relentless. It is year after year after year after year. I have made references to this in other articles. But it seems to me that few pastors and people understand this issue. It is so important that it is worth spending a whole article on it.
What happens to those people?
Some die. Does your pastor still do funerals for the people of your church? Some people become physically incapacitated so they can no longer attend. John Casey was in church every Sunday. He rarely missed. Now John is 77. Because of his health he now only attends about one Sunday every two months. He grieves because he can’t go more frequently. Mary Jenkins was very regular. She is now in a nursing home.
Other people get job transfers and relocate. John and Susan Jeffries were an integral part of their church. They held key leadership positions. Their company has relocated them to another part of the country. They will be sorely missed. Mt. Union Church was doing quite well. Their average attendance was creeping over 100. A plant closed and 5 of their regular families were transferred out. That was a crushing blow.
Corey and Rebekah provide another version of this. They have retired. The first week of December they go to Florida and don’t return until March. They had been regular.
Others just drop out over issues you can’t quickly control. Justin and Rachel Smith came with some frequency for five years. Gradually they became less frequent. They haven’t been there at all in the last six months. Some will go to other churches. Again it is over issues that can’t be quickly addressed. George and Sarah were regular. Now they go to the “super church” twelve miles away.
The churches with an aging congregation and those in very transient areas will be at the higher end of that 10-15% spectrum.
Stemming the tide
Normal attrition will take more people from a church than will just walk through the door. This is the crunch point. “Churches of Choice” are the only exceptions to this. Only 1-2% of churches fall into this category. Churches of choice are so prominent in their communities that enough people walk through the door to cover normal attrition.
However, the other 98-99% of churches will have to have an aggressive outreach program to cover normal attrition. For a church to grow, more new people will have to attend than those who have been lost by normal attrition. That is a constant challenge for every church because normal attrition happens every year.
Mt. Hope Church had been in decline for several years. Normal attrition was taking its toll. A new pastor came on the scene. Some time was spent in healing. Several bulk mailings were sent to several thousand homes in the community. Then they conducted a community survey in over 3,000 homes. Carefully a prospect list of 200 homes was built and regularly cultivated. A once a month mailing for a year was sent to the 400 homes closest to the church. Monthly fellowship events were conducted so the people of the church could invite their unchurched friends. Gradually, Mt. Hope turned a corner and began to grow. Finally, there was sufficient flow of new people to cover the losses caused by normal attrition.
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Also see:
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A Plan for Outreach - People Spots Vol 8, Issue 1 |
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Do You Want Your Church to Grow? - People Spots Vol 7, Issue 10 |
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Keeping People Who Visit - People Spots Vol 5, Issue 3 |
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Keeping People Long-Term - People Spots Vol 5, Issue 4 |
|
Understanding Outreach Today - People Spots Vol 7, Issue 19 |
|
Understanding Saturation - People Spots Vol 7, Issue 17 |
|
Walking People Through the Door - People Spots Vol 5, Issue 2 |
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Read about Jim's seminars and books.
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September 9, 2004. Volume 7, Issue 16. People Spots Online is prepared by James W. Moss, Sr., and Church Consultants. It is provided as a service by New Life Ministries, www.NewLifeMinistries-NLM.org. Articles may be duplicated and reproduced in any way with proper credit. A new article is produced about every two weeks. To be added to a list to receive these messages directly by e-mail, send a request to churchconsultants@yahoo.com.